Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
